![]() ![]() Instead, forecasters expect a slightly above-average number of storms. As a result, this year's hurricane forecast isn't the quiet one you might expect for an El Niño year. The water in the Atlantic is very warm because of climate disruption, and warm water helps hurricanes grow. Generally, there are fewer storms during El Niño years, because wind conditions are bad for hurricane development.īut, even there, human-caused climate change is making itself felt. residents? El Niño is not good for Atlantic hurricanes. That's bad news for communities where flash floods have destroyed homes and even killed people in recent years, and where drain pipes and stormwater infrastructure is not built to handle the enormous amounts of rain that now regularly fall in short periods of time. In the Southern U.S., where climate change is making dangerously heavy rain storms more common, El Niño adds even more juice. That's bad news for Canada, which already had an abnormally hot Spring, and is grappling with widespread wildfires from Alberta all the way to the Maritimes in the East. In the Northern United States and Canada, El Niño generally brings drier, warmer weather. Here's what that means for weather in the U.S.Įl Niño also exacerbates other effects of climate change. That's how powerful human-caused warming is: it blows Earth's natural temperature variability out of the water. It's one of the most obvious ways that El Niño, which is a natural climate pattern, exacerbates the effects of climate change, which is caused by humans burning fossil fuels and releasing greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.īut temperature superlatives obscure the bigger trend: the last 8 years were the hottest ever recorded, despite a persistent La Niña that took hold in late 2020 and only just ended, depressing global temperatures. The hottest years on record tend to happen during El Niño. " could lead to new records for temperatures," says Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. The natural climate phenomenon is marked by warmer ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which drives hotter weather around the world. El Niño makes a record-breaking average annual temperature for Earth more likely.Įl Niño is officially here, and that means things are about to get even hotter. The trend is not strong which could be due to not having enough data or this could represent the actual relationship between these two variables.Early morning hikers rest before walking down Piestewa Peak, a city park in Phoenix, Ariz. What this says is that as fertility rate increases, life expectancy decreases. Graph 2.5.3: Scatter Plot of Life Expectancy versus Fertility Rateįrom the graph, you can see that there is somewhat of a downward trend, but it is not prominent. Note: Always start the vertical axis at zero to avoid exaggeration of the data. The vertical axis needs to encompass the numbers 70.8 to 81.9, so have it range from zero to 90, and have tick marks every 10 units. The horizontal axis needs to encompass 1.1 to 3.4, so have it range from zero to four, with tick marks every one unit. In this case, it seems to make more sense to predict what the life expectancy is doing based on fertility rate, so choose life expectancy to be the dependent variable and fertility rate to be the independent variable. Sometimes it is obvious which variable is which, and in some case it does not seem to be obvious. To make the scatter plot, you have to decide which variable is the independent variable and which one is the dependent variable. Often, El Nio is followed immediately by La Nia, as if the warm water is sloshing back and forth across the Pacific. The cycle is not fully understood, but the times series illustrates that the cycle swings back and forth every 3-7 years. \): Life Expectancy and Fertility Rate in 2013įertility Rate (number of children per mother) El Nio and La Nia reflect the two end points of an oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. ![]()
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